Highlights from Chapter 5:

Forecasts and Estimates

The 2023 Project Update Report, released just 11 months ago, provided major updates to capital costs, schedules, and project progression for each phase of the Authority’s statewide work. The forecasts and estimates prepared for this 2024 Business Plan were developed pursuant to statutory requirements and include:

  • Capital cost estimates (shown in a range)
  • Ridership and revenue forecasts (high, medium, and low)
  • Operations and maintenance (O&M) cost estimates (high, medium, and low)
  • Life cycle cost estimates (high, medium, and low)
  • Cash flow estimates (high, medium, and low)
  • A breakeven analysis (prepared with a Monte Carlo analysis to evaluate three scenarios)
Still graphic rendering of a high-speed rail train on a viaduct structure crossing in the Pacheco Pass. Click the image for more detail.

High-speed rail will move through the Pacheco Pass area between San José and Merced. Click the image for more detail.

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